Scottish Chamber of Commerce Quarterly

Economic Indicator Q1 2024

• INFLATIONARY CONCERNS EASE BUT REMAIN HIGH: Concern over inflation has fallen to 52% for this quarter - compared to 75% in the last quarter - and this is the lowest that concern from inflation has been in all of 2023. 52% is still 20 percentage points higher than the 32% recorded pre-inflation crisis in Q1 2021.

 • INVESTMENT IS STILL FLATLINING: While on balance, more firms continue to report increases in investment than falls, over half of firms continue to report no changes to both total (55%) and training (54%) investment.

• INTEREST RATES RISES REMAIN A CONCERN: Concern over interest rates was reported by half of firms in the last quarter, that has now fallen by 10 percentage points to 40% for this quarter but is still significantly higher than the 15% recorded in Q1 2021 pre-inflation crisis.

• PRICE RISES HAVE STABILISED: Less firms are indicating that they will raise prices this quarter compared to last, following the trend over 2023. Four in 10 now indicate they will raise prices in the next quarter compared to 48% in the last quarter.

 • LABOUR MARKET REMAINS TIGHT: Recruitment difficulties remain challenging, impacting 40% of firms this quarter, with associated labour costs still affecting seven in 10 firms.

Stephen Leckie, President of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:

“These latest survey results paint a clear picture: Scotland’s economy is stuck in a low growth cycle. Persistently high inflation, higher borrowing costs, frozen investment and ongoing global uncertainty are placing businesses under significant pressure.

“These issues must be addressed by all parties at the next General Election with businesses expecting clear plans which will boost economic growth and investment. Parties of all colours will be tested on whether they are listening to business and taking real action to back business growth.”

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SCOTTISH ECONOMY STUCK IN SHADOW OF LOW GROWTH